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Tam Hunt's avatar

Daniel, I appreciate your work on this issue. As you know, I've worked on climate policy for over twenty years. I've come around to the view that the abrupt and catastrophic climate change scenarios are quite unlikely to occur for a couple of reasons: 1) mainstream models significantly under-estimate the role of natural solar variation over decades; 2) those same models significantly under-estimate the role of the urban heat island effect on global temperature records. A number of peer reviewed papers over the last decade have explored these issues. Here's one recent example, finding that global temperature records are probably over-stated significantly b/c they don't adequately account for urban heat island effects: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/179.

At the same time, we are seeing a massive global shift toward renewables and electric vehicles. For example, a recent study by Bloomberg found that 31 countries accounting for 2/3 of all car sales have passed the 5% of new car sales from EVs, which is a tipping point where it's not just early adopters buying EVs. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/03/28/the-ev-revolution-has-passed-a-tipping-point/

The end result of these trends is my view, described in some detail in my 2nd edition of my book, Solar: Why Our Energy Future Is So Bright, is what I call in one chapter "The reasonable person's case for climate optimism." There are no certainties in this area but I think the more reasonable view at this juncture is that the more dire and extreme climate scenarios are quite unlikely to occur.

AI is a far far bigger threat at this juncture to humanity's wellbeing and survival and that is why I am turning much of my attention to efforts to mitigate or slow the rise of catastrophic AI. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-safety-research-only-enables-the-dangers-of-runaway-superintelligence/

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The Last Stoic's avatar

What we are addicted to is hubris. The idea that we can accurately model and predict highly complex systems not fully understood, is nonsensical. Even simple models like fluid dynamics, my field, require assumptions or controlled variables that introduce error. This increases with complexity and any introduced error compounds over time. Hence the repeated inaccuracy of climate models and predictions. Same could be said of economic or covid models. Facts are: humans are bad at predictions of the future, climate related deaths are at an all time low mostly due to fossil fuels, co2 has been higher in the past with life (not human but life) thriving and humans are one of the most adaptable species to ever inhabit this planet. I am all for mitigation of human impacts to the environment but climate alarmism is something we should be highly skeptical of.

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