I (and maybe others) could use your help here. Obviously most of us are here because we value your thinking and are persuaded by your analysis. For me, most of your content since I signed on a few months ago has made total sense. But- and bear with me here- I keep coming back to a question: How certain can and should we be about the accuracy of your take on what is unfolding?
What you put forth holds up as I take it in and I tend not to question it. But it's also true that you are vastly more intelligent and well-read than I am. The truth is that I wouldn't be able to tell if parts of your argument are off-base because I don't have the foundation to assess it at your level. Do I trust your intentions? Absolutely. But the gravity of what you put forth and the implications that follow change everything about how most of us understand and make sense of the world. It's simply immense, as I know you realize.
So my request is this: Would you be willing to point me toward others, outside your immediate intellectual circle, who have arrived at similar conclusions about Thiel’s role? Does Naomi Klein see things this way? Are there other sources that might serve as intersecting points for someone like me—someone who is genuinely seeking to understand but also holds a healthy skepticism about assertions of this magnitude?
Thank you for your time and for the prolific and tireless work that you do.
Well, I don't know what to say. I feel like I provide a huge number of links and references for people who want to go and backtrack my logic. It is obvious that Thiel is a major architect of Silicon Valley and of the tech oligarch's embrace of Trump. He was the first to publicly join Trump and made a speech at the 2016 Convention which you can watch online. Nerd Reich covers him well. The New Yorker profiles on him are deep. He has used his wealth and power to build a huge amount of support - lots of CEOs whose start ups were partly funded by Thiel are in his thrall. You can read up on Palantir. Thiel and Musk worked together on PayPal and other ventures. Thiel was a major early investor in Facebook (which is now outright censoring Heather Cox Richardson who has been doing a tremendous job). Where are you feeling skeptical? Also I am coming at this with humility. I could be wrong. Everyone has to reach their own conclusions - but we will need to get people working together in some fashion to oppose this. With the tariffs, today, it is very extreme what they are seeking to do to destroy the US economy and turn the people into paupers while cutting their Medicare and Social Security. it is very destructive, brutal, cruel, vile. This is everything Curtis Yarvin -- who Thiel has bankrolled - has wanted to happen, writing about in his blogs. I just saw a video today that said Vance was talking with Yarvin every day and they are basically doing what Yarvin proposes. Yarvin has "joked"about turning the underclass into biodiesel. I don't know what else I can say or do? I think normal people find it difficult to put themselves in the shoes of psychopaths and sociopaths who have no empathy for others. This may be part of Krugman's problem. He can imagine that Trump is an idiot or mentally deranged, but he can't somehow imagine that Trump and the people behind him actually do have a plan and it is to massively hurt the American people so they can further centralize their power and their wealth and their control. They may actually enjoy the cruelty. It seems like a lot of people do, as I have also written recently.
Thank you. And yes, you do provide the links and references. It's just all very difficult to take in. Understandably. But we have to look at it squarely in order to be prepared, which is I know part of your core purpose.
it wasn't actually reliable - and I lost the link, so I do not know whether it is true. But it doesn't matter as Vance has often cited Yarvin as a main influence.
I agree partly with your analysis, but I think Krugman has legitimate points, too. Trump has been obsessed with tariffs since the 1980s -- he's stupid & stubborn in his views. But he is a useful idiot for Thiel & co, who see the means to benefit from the wreckage that tariffs will bring.
Russia's Boris Yeltsin was also considered an erratic bumbler, but presided over the complete and utter devastation of Russia and creation of an oligarchic system.
I agree that, policies of the government in Washington DC "are not designed to succeed within the old paradigm, but to accelerate its failure."
It is truly scary to contemplate where the Thiel/Musk/Vance ideas overlap with the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 ideas.
Here is an additional twist... Maybe progressives should look into preserving human rights and functional liberal societies within state boundaries and/or within state-compacts among groups of progressively oriented states. Rather than trying to prop up an unrepresentative Congress or vilified Federal system, maybe we should put our energies into ensuring the strength of our state structures in the states where we actually live.
Thank you for this! I too am extremely frustrated by the refusal of so-called progressives and "the left" for their incomplete (and therefore dangerous) "analysis" of what's happening here. I try to explain it to people but they seem stuck on "tax breaks for billionaires", and leave it at that. I don't know if they're afraid of being called conspiracy theorists (because at first most people look at me like I've grown two heads, until they actually look at what I've been watching and reading, or if they are just not willing to look at the whole picture. If we refuse to see what is really going on, we won't have a chance of defeating it. It will be like trying to prevent a flood using bales of hay.
Daniel - BRILLIANT! Everyone needs to read your excellent analysis and call-to-action! PLEASE remove the paywall on just this article so that we may send it to those who are not yet your subscribers and they can read your entire analysis. Thank you, thank you!
There are similarities with the effect of Brexit on medium-sized, often very innovative and successful British businesses. The ones like Amazon could afford to adapt at scale and ride it out. Most of the others collapsed under the weight of regulation delaying the export process, or moved their operations to continental Europe.
It is true, Brexit has been a disaster for any mid sized business - so much paperwork, export costs, new rules. Trade with the EU overall is down 15% in four years when it was argued it would really boost trade. It was bollocks of course, nationalism is no reality. Like Trump, the right can't really understand relational, reciprocal and complex systems - which is why they don't get climate change. They are basically thick
When you explain how Peter Thiel's business is well suited to survive the coming economic crisis, you engage in the very sort of economic analysis that you sneer at in your opening. Krugman is an economist, not a political scientist. When he says there's no method to his madness, he's talking economics, not politics. And his analysis actually supports your political thinking. His closing line, "I love the smell of … burning economies in the morning" is the foundation of your analysis.
The trouble with the left is we keep fighting each other, and it undermines us, even when we're both going in the same direction. Krugman said there's no underlying plan because there's nobody in the White House smart enough to come up with one. You're claiming it's Peter Thiel's plan, among others, none of whom work in the White House. We can nitpick at the limitations of Krugman's econ-centric view without sneering at his entire profession.
I think you're probably right about Thiel's intentions, motives, and economic position to thrive, although wild plans like his tend to go awry.
A colleague of mine posted this ridiculous explanation of Trump's tariffs on Facebook: "Trump's strategy is to use tariffs to lower the stock market and the dollar, allowing the Fed to cut rates, and the Treasury to refinance debt at a much lower rate. Instantly cutting the US debt. Since that average middle class person is not in the market, there will be little effect on them. It's brilliant."
I'm sure my colleague didn't think this up himself, he got it from some right-wing source. Krugman's analysis is the antidote to this kind of magical thinking. We can appreciate your useful vision of the bigger picture without engaging in leftist infighting. You and Krugman are both saying that Trumponomics will be a disaster for Trump's voters. There are better targets for your ire.
fair enough - thank you for the corrective. My counterpoint: it was not "ire." I like Krugman a lot and have read him for decades. I think we should as liberals/Leftists also be able to criticize and analyze each other, without it being taken so personally or seen as a reason to shut down. I actually love receiving critiques and thoughtful correctives, such as yours. I think we need more active conflict, not less.
In the 1990’s I represented thirty states and U.S. territories in the litigation against Big Tobacco that resulted in the multibillion settlement in 1998.
During the course of that litigation I dealt with many of President Trump’s New York inner circle, including Carl Icahn, Marc Kasowitz and Bennett LeBow. LeBow was the controlling shareholder in Liggett Group (formerly Liggett & Myers) and his lawyer was Marc Kasowitz.
It was revealed during the course of negotiations that LeBow and Icahn had visions of a hostile takeover of RJR-Nabisco. They had formed an alliance with certain monied Russians to fund the takeover provided RJR’s share price dropped to an agreed pre-determined level. They intended to accomplish this by breaking ranks with the larger tobacco companies and essentially turning “states’ evidence.” Liggett had been stripped of its liquidity such that devaluing its share price had little meaning given the effect it would have on tobacco stocks generally.
When the Liggett settlement with the states was announced in March 1996, it caused a rapid decline in the value of tobacco shares—just as LeBow, Icahn and Kasowitz had predicted. The caper would have succeeded but for Phillip-Morris’s catching on and bidding up the price of RJR’s shares to prevent their decline below the level of triggering the infusion of the Russian money.
Unbeknownst at the time to us, LeBow, Kasowitz and Icahn were simultaneously working with Donald Trump to put up a Trump Tower Moscow. It never went anywhere for unknown reasons—probably because Trump et. al., were too sleazy even for the Russians.
I offer this convoluted story as a probable explanation for Trump’s seemingly inexplicable attempts to tank the U.S. and world economies. It creates opportunities for Trump’s family and cronies (using Russian and Saudi money) to buy into a depressed market at fire sale prices. His claims of rebuilding the American industrial base is a smokescreen—a “look at that squirrel” diversion.
Folks haven’t yet caught on that Trump doesn’t care about political success except to the extent that it gives him the power to regulate the economy. He cares about becoming Putin-rich. Tanking the economy is a diabolical but elegant way to do it.
Standing ovation. With your brilliant commentary, a multidimensional image of what’s going on is emerging with clarity and force. It’s almost laughable that the pillars like Krugman are so pathologically incurious and married to their own worldview.
Ok very smart people. No one's talking about why no tariffs on Russia. Is it just Putin's home over djt? Or is it throwing Russia economy a big soft ball because we'll import hold there. Cars. Goods. Etc. Is it that Putin squeezing his nuts more? As exchange for ending Ukraine war? Or what?
Hi Vicky, I remember you from Schmaucher College on a course with John Van DeGraff. Is the Russian omission because it is already sanctioned, because Putin and Trump are hand in hand or what. Looks like America is going to stew in its own juices or tear international relations apart through his role of Anti Christ and bringer of end times. Certainly plenty of backers see it like this with the Holy Land regained for the second coming of Trump and the Rapture
Top story in the Guardian today “Oligarchy: Trump exempts big oil donors from tariffs package”. Are we getting it yet people? Timing of this post couldn’t have been better, Daniel.
Hi Daniel, good thoughts. As I’m sure you know, the Covid shutdowns afforded huge opportunities for the billionaire class to suck up distressed assets including so many small businesses. I think it’s important to factor that into such an analysis as well. In other words, as our political systems have deteriorated over the last twenty years or so (probably longer but who’s counting?) wealth has been steadily shifting upward. In general, I think it’s important to take a longer view and not simply blame everything on Trump although he offers plenty of cause for concern with so many destabilizing decisions. I think you do this later in the article which is great.
>>Trump’s tariffs align with a plan to transform the U.S. fully into a serf society ruled by tech and AI interests.
Well said. And excellent comments about “liberal economic theory”. What remains to be solved by the independent media in my opinion is a deep dive into the question of agency. How exactly do these elites operate? Where are the less obvious identifiable touch points between powerful corporate interests and a compliant uniparty Congress?
The covid lockdowns are not part of a pre-planned conspiracy with a particular goal in mind, imo.
Rapacious individuals and corporations will take every opportunity that arises from political or natural events and act in a way that looks like an organized conspiracy.
Another aspect from hcr: Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) noted tonight that the tariffs make no economic sense because “[t]hey aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.” Murphy suggests they are a way to make private industry dependent on the president the same way he has tried to make law firms and universities dependent on him. Industries and companies “will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.”
Murphy warns that “[t]he tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship…[s]o that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.”
Thanks for the comment. I'd be interested in your view on the genesis of military conflict. Are wars something that "just happens" or is some sort of agency involved? For example, a look at cultural markers over the last several years shows a clear ramp up in the militarization of culture which can most readily perhaps be seen in the media (e.g. Netflix movies etc.) Here's an article from several years ago on this:
Sticking to covid, I think there was a lab leak due to gain of function being carried out in a facility that wasn't hardened appropriate to the risk involved. The conspiracy, in that case was the ensuing cover-up.
Is it possible that there were some at the apex of power who adopted a "let it happen on purpose" reaction? You'd have to assume, in that case that Chinese elites were also trying to collapse their own country, using covid as a convenient way to do it.
It's possible, but not likely, imo. As far as miitary conflict goes, I think false flags occur. 911 was a false flag that allowed power elites to engage in endless wars in the Middle East. Wars are often the result of a manipulative game, with intent hidden from the public.
I remember folks who even suggested the possibility of a lab leak being shut down and branded as conspiracy theorists (which of course is a truly intellectually lazy way of dealing with controversial issues. ). Fortunately, the truth about the origins of Covid is slowly emerging. I would be open to considering the possibility that it was the shutdowns that enabled elites to take full economic advantage of what was happening with Covid. Did they somehow give that a nudge? I think that's the question at hand.
By the way, I wasn't suggesting that Covid was a conspiracy to shift wealth. But it's certainly curious how well it dovetails with the longer term economic patterns being discussed.
Also I really want to pursue this further - very interesting and important observation. Being politically and intellectually homeless is one thing, but seeing the situation (as you have so brilliantly laid it out here) around us but trying to code switch enough to articulate it to those who are not nearly as politically homeless (ie Krugman, ie almost everyone I now) is a really tough thing to do. And could not be more urgent.
"Meanwhile, the ongoing attack of Right Wing media has changed the cultural narrative around the middle class and establishment progressives. They are no longer seen as important to the U.S., but as out-of-touch, privileged, and insufficiently patriotic and religious. They are made increasingly politically homeless: still too wealthy to qualify as "working class," too independent to be controlled by elite narratives, too scattered to form effective solidarity. The lower echelon of the middle class (under $150,000 income) will see their taxes go up as the upper class benefits from a tax cut built on dismantling social services for the poor and elderly."
I took a look at the Krugman piece and the thread of questions you're on there. It's a very interesting conundrum between your two different arguments. I agree with you overall, though I wish I didn't. It's kinda funny because before your article today, I was thinking how I liked Krugman's pieces lately. But I do agree he's overlooking the really nasty shit. I think he must know a lot about Economics. But you're on to more than that. On the one hand though, there was news that Elon would be let go soon. So, perhaps bad press is effective. A big question for me is whether Trump is primarily interested in getting Attention, any kind of attention. Obviously to me he is the worst. If it's attention more than a whole new world order that he wants, maybe that line of reasoning could favor Krugman's argument. It's clear the bad actors like Theil and project25 have methods and malice. Perhaps Trump is both methodless and methodical, so long as his need for attention whims are satisfied. So unpredictable. Certainly he doesn't mind all of us thinking about him all the time. The dilemma will be ongoing and the call for resistance most crucial. Your leadership is needed.
I think it is beneficial to look, as Daniel has done, beyond the personality of the Dear Leader. Part of the failure of the American liberal democracy has been too much emphasis on personalities. MAGA is a movement. They have a network of people with various personalities, and they are organized toward burning down the structures of government, economy, and culture that they feel stand in the way of their christo-fascist utopia.
The main role that Donald plays in this is to be a lightning rod for our disdain.
Very good Daniel. Watching from across the pond it is hard to see any rhyme not reason for his resentment day speech on tariffs. Maybe you are crafting one. I guess my question is, does it help even Tiel and Trump and Musk to have every country hate America and set too against it because they will until Trump tries to attack them militarily
Those guys don't care about the USA. That's just a front. They are enriching themselves personally, which is all they will ever care about. They can live anywhere once the job is completed.
Hi Daniel-
I (and maybe others) could use your help here. Obviously most of us are here because we value your thinking and are persuaded by your analysis. For me, most of your content since I signed on a few months ago has made total sense. But- and bear with me here- I keep coming back to a question: How certain can and should we be about the accuracy of your take on what is unfolding?
What you put forth holds up as I take it in and I tend not to question it. But it's also true that you are vastly more intelligent and well-read than I am. The truth is that I wouldn't be able to tell if parts of your argument are off-base because I don't have the foundation to assess it at your level. Do I trust your intentions? Absolutely. But the gravity of what you put forth and the implications that follow change everything about how most of us understand and make sense of the world. It's simply immense, as I know you realize.
So my request is this: Would you be willing to point me toward others, outside your immediate intellectual circle, who have arrived at similar conclusions about Thiel’s role? Does Naomi Klein see things this way? Are there other sources that might serve as intersecting points for someone like me—someone who is genuinely seeking to understand but also holds a healthy skepticism about assertions of this magnitude?
Thank you for your time and for the prolific and tireless work that you do.
Hi fly,
Well, I don't know what to say. I feel like I provide a huge number of links and references for people who want to go and backtrack my logic. It is obvious that Thiel is a major architect of Silicon Valley and of the tech oligarch's embrace of Trump. He was the first to publicly join Trump and made a speech at the 2016 Convention which you can watch online. Nerd Reich covers him well. The New Yorker profiles on him are deep. He has used his wealth and power to build a huge amount of support - lots of CEOs whose start ups were partly funded by Thiel are in his thrall. You can read up on Palantir. Thiel and Musk worked together on PayPal and other ventures. Thiel was a major early investor in Facebook (which is now outright censoring Heather Cox Richardson who has been doing a tremendous job). Where are you feeling skeptical? Also I am coming at this with humility. I could be wrong. Everyone has to reach their own conclusions - but we will need to get people working together in some fashion to oppose this. With the tariffs, today, it is very extreme what they are seeking to do to destroy the US economy and turn the people into paupers while cutting their Medicare and Social Security. it is very destructive, brutal, cruel, vile. This is everything Curtis Yarvin -- who Thiel has bankrolled - has wanted to happen, writing about in his blogs. I just saw a video today that said Vance was talking with Yarvin every day and they are basically doing what Yarvin proposes. Yarvin has "joked"about turning the underclass into biodiesel. I don't know what else I can say or do? I think normal people find it difficult to put themselves in the shoes of psychopaths and sociopaths who have no empathy for others. This may be part of Krugman's problem. He can imagine that Trump is an idiot or mentally deranged, but he can't somehow imagine that Trump and the people behind him actually do have a plan and it is to massively hurt the American people so they can further centralize their power and their wealth and their control. They may actually enjoy the cruelty. It seems like a lot of people do, as I have also written recently.
Thank you. And yes, you do provide the links and references. It's just all very difficult to take in. Understandably. But we have to look at it squarely in order to be prepared, which is I know part of your core purpose.
I wish I was telling a different story believe me
Daniel, Can you link somewhere to the video asserting that Vance is talking to Yarvin every day? That would be important info to know and disseminate.
it wasn't actually reliable - and I lost the link, so I do not know whether it is true. But it doesn't matter as Vance has often cited Yarvin as a main influence.
Have you read the recent Gil Durant piece about Yarvin's disappointment in the Trump regime, that it isn't going far enough? https://www.thenerdreich.com/curtis-yarvin-fears-his-authoritarian-fantasy-is-flopping/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/13/end-times-fascism-far-right-trump-musk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Here’s the latest from Naomi Klein: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/apr/13/end-times-fascism-far-right-trump-musk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I agree partly with your analysis, but I think Krugman has legitimate points, too. Trump has been obsessed with tariffs since the 1980s -- he's stupid & stubborn in his views. But he is a useful idiot for Thiel & co, who see the means to benefit from the wreckage that tariffs will bring.
Actually, I anticipate Trump will make deals for those willing to pay fealty to him for tariff relief.
Russia's Boris Yeltsin was also considered an erratic bumbler, but presided over the complete and utter devastation of Russia and creation of an oligarchic system.
THIS!!!!
I agree that, policies of the government in Washington DC "are not designed to succeed within the old paradigm, but to accelerate its failure."
It is truly scary to contemplate where the Thiel/Musk/Vance ideas overlap with the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 ideas.
Here is an additional twist... Maybe progressives should look into preserving human rights and functional liberal societies within state boundaries and/or within state-compacts among groups of progressively oriented states. Rather than trying to prop up an unrepresentative Congress or vilified Federal system, maybe we should put our energies into ensuring the strength of our state structures in the states where we actually live.
that is probably a good idea, but I am not sure it will work in practice. Worth a shot!
Thank you for this! I too am extremely frustrated by the refusal of so-called progressives and "the left" for their incomplete (and therefore dangerous) "analysis" of what's happening here. I try to explain it to people but they seem stuck on "tax breaks for billionaires", and leave it at that. I don't know if they're afraid of being called conspiracy theorists (because at first most people look at me like I've grown two heads, until they actually look at what I've been watching and reading, or if they are just not willing to look at the whole picture. If we refuse to see what is really going on, we won't have a chance of defeating it. It will be like trying to prevent a flood using bales of hay.
Daniel - BRILLIANT! Everyone needs to read your excellent analysis and call-to-action! PLEASE remove the paywall on just this article so that we may send it to those who are not yet your subscribers and they can read your entire analysis. Thank you, thank you!
ok I will remove the paywall.
Thank you!
Really?
Done
There are similarities with the effect of Brexit on medium-sized, often very innovative and successful British businesses. The ones like Amazon could afford to adapt at scale and ride it out. Most of the others collapsed under the weight of regulation delaying the export process, or moved their operations to continental Europe.
Interesting. Would love to dig into more of Brexit as a case study.
It is true, Brexit has been a disaster for any mid sized business - so much paperwork, export costs, new rules. Trade with the EU overall is down 15% in four years when it was argued it would really boost trade. It was bollocks of course, nationalism is no reality. Like Trump, the right can't really understand relational, reciprocal and complex systems - which is why they don't get climate change. They are basically thick
Daniel,
When you explain how Peter Thiel's business is well suited to survive the coming economic crisis, you engage in the very sort of economic analysis that you sneer at in your opening. Krugman is an economist, not a political scientist. When he says there's no method to his madness, he's talking economics, not politics. And his analysis actually supports your political thinking. His closing line, "I love the smell of … burning economies in the morning" is the foundation of your analysis.
The trouble with the left is we keep fighting each other, and it undermines us, even when we're both going in the same direction. Krugman said there's no underlying plan because there's nobody in the White House smart enough to come up with one. You're claiming it's Peter Thiel's plan, among others, none of whom work in the White House. We can nitpick at the limitations of Krugman's econ-centric view without sneering at his entire profession.
I think you're probably right about Thiel's intentions, motives, and economic position to thrive, although wild plans like his tend to go awry.
A colleague of mine posted this ridiculous explanation of Trump's tariffs on Facebook: "Trump's strategy is to use tariffs to lower the stock market and the dollar, allowing the Fed to cut rates, and the Treasury to refinance debt at a much lower rate. Instantly cutting the US debt. Since that average middle class person is not in the market, there will be little effect on them. It's brilliant."
I'm sure my colleague didn't think this up himself, he got it from some right-wing source. Krugman's analysis is the antidote to this kind of magical thinking. We can appreciate your useful vision of the bigger picture without engaging in leftist infighting. You and Krugman are both saying that Trumponomics will be a disaster for Trump's voters. There are better targets for your ire.
fair enough - thank you for the corrective. My counterpoint: it was not "ire." I like Krugman a lot and have read him for decades. I think we should as liberals/Leftists also be able to criticize and analyze each other, without it being taken so personally or seen as a reason to shut down. I actually love receiving critiques and thoughtful correctives, such as yours. I think we need more active conflict, not less.
In the 1990’s I represented thirty states and U.S. territories in the litigation against Big Tobacco that resulted in the multibillion settlement in 1998.
During the course of that litigation I dealt with many of President Trump’s New York inner circle, including Carl Icahn, Marc Kasowitz and Bennett LeBow. LeBow was the controlling shareholder in Liggett Group (formerly Liggett & Myers) and his lawyer was Marc Kasowitz.
It was revealed during the course of negotiations that LeBow and Icahn had visions of a hostile takeover of RJR-Nabisco. They had formed an alliance with certain monied Russians to fund the takeover provided RJR’s share price dropped to an agreed pre-determined level. They intended to accomplish this by breaking ranks with the larger tobacco companies and essentially turning “states’ evidence.” Liggett had been stripped of its liquidity such that devaluing its share price had little meaning given the effect it would have on tobacco stocks generally.
When the Liggett settlement with the states was announced in March 1996, it caused a rapid decline in the value of tobacco shares—just as LeBow, Icahn and Kasowitz had predicted. The caper would have succeeded but for Phillip-Morris’s catching on and bidding up the price of RJR’s shares to prevent their decline below the level of triggering the infusion of the Russian money.
Unbeknownst at the time to us, LeBow, Kasowitz and Icahn were simultaneously working with Donald Trump to put up a Trump Tower Moscow. It never went anywhere for unknown reasons—probably because Trump et. al., were too sleazy even for the Russians.
I offer this convoluted story as a probable explanation for Trump’s seemingly inexplicable attempts to tank the U.S. and world economies. It creates opportunities for Trump’s family and cronies (using Russian and Saudi money) to buy into a depressed market at fire sale prices. His claims of rebuilding the American industrial base is a smokescreen—a “look at that squirrel” diversion.
Folks haven’t yet caught on that Trump doesn’t care about political success except to the extent that it gives him the power to regulate the economy. He cares about becoming Putin-rich. Tanking the economy is a diabolical but elegant way to do it.
I know that it’s hard to swallow the notion of an American President’s cratering his country’s financial welfare for personal enrichment, but the dots do line up. He’s still close to the same guys who did it to Big Tobacco. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/business/dealbook/sorkin-marc-kasowitz-trump-lawyer.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Bingo
Standing ovation. With your brilliant commentary, a multidimensional image of what’s going on is emerging with clarity and force. It’s almost laughable that the pillars like Krugman are so pathologically incurious and married to their own worldview.
Ok very smart people. No one's talking about why no tariffs on Russia. Is it just Putin's home over djt? Or is it throwing Russia economy a big soft ball because we'll import hold there. Cars. Goods. Etc. Is it that Putin squeezing his nuts more? As exchange for ending Ukraine war? Or what?
Hi Vicky, I remember you from Schmaucher College on a course with John Van DeGraff. Is the Russian omission because it is already sanctioned, because Putin and Trump are hand in hand or what. Looks like America is going to stew in its own juices or tear international relations apart through his role of Anti Christ and bringer of end times. Certainly plenty of backers see it like this with the Holy Land regained for the second coming of Trump and the Rapture
Top story in the Guardian today “Oligarchy: Trump exempts big oil donors from tariffs package”. Are we getting it yet people? Timing of this post couldn’t have been better, Daniel.
Hi Daniel, good thoughts. As I’m sure you know, the Covid shutdowns afforded huge opportunities for the billionaire class to suck up distressed assets including so many small businesses. I think it’s important to factor that into such an analysis as well. In other words, as our political systems have deteriorated over the last twenty years or so (probably longer but who’s counting?) wealth has been steadily shifting upward. In general, I think it’s important to take a longer view and not simply blame everything on Trump although he offers plenty of cause for concern with so many destabilizing decisions. I think you do this later in the article which is great.
>>Trump’s tariffs align with a plan to transform the U.S. fully into a serf society ruled by tech and AI interests.
Well said. And excellent comments about “liberal economic theory”. What remains to be solved by the independent media in my opinion is a deep dive into the question of agency. How exactly do these elites operate? Where are the less obvious identifiable touch points between powerful corporate interests and a compliant uniparty Congress?
The covid lockdowns are not part of a pre-planned conspiracy with a particular goal in mind, imo.
Rapacious individuals and corporations will take every opportunity that arises from political or natural events and act in a way that looks like an organized conspiracy.
Another aspect from hcr: Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) noted tonight that the tariffs make no economic sense because “[t]hey aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.” Murphy suggests they are a way to make private industry dependent on the president the same way he has tried to make law firms and universities dependent on him. Industries and companies “will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.”
Murphy warns that “[t]he tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship…[s]o that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.”
Thanks for the comment. I'd be interested in your view on the genesis of military conflict. Are wars something that "just happens" or is some sort of agency involved? For example, a look at cultural markers over the last several years shows a clear ramp up in the militarization of culture which can most readily perhaps be seen in the media (e.g. Netflix movies etc.) Here's an article from several years ago on this:
The Militarization of Culture: A Short History
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/06/23/militarization-culture-short-history
Sticking to covid, I think there was a lab leak due to gain of function being carried out in a facility that wasn't hardened appropriate to the risk involved. The conspiracy, in that case was the ensuing cover-up.
Is it possible that there were some at the apex of power who adopted a "let it happen on purpose" reaction? You'd have to assume, in that case that Chinese elites were also trying to collapse their own country, using covid as a convenient way to do it.
It's possible, but not likely, imo. As far as miitary conflict goes, I think false flags occur. 911 was a false flag that allowed power elites to engage in endless wars in the Middle East. Wars are often the result of a manipulative game, with intent hidden from the public.
I remember folks who even suggested the possibility of a lab leak being shut down and branded as conspiracy theorists (which of course is a truly intellectually lazy way of dealing with controversial issues. ). Fortunately, the truth about the origins of Covid is slowly emerging. I would be open to considering the possibility that it was the shutdowns that enabled elites to take full economic advantage of what was happening with Covid. Did they somehow give that a nudge? I think that's the question at hand.
By the way, I wasn't suggesting that Covid was a conspiracy to shift wealth. But it's certainly curious how well it dovetails with the longer term economic patterns being discussed.
Also I really want to pursue this further - very interesting and important observation. Being politically and intellectually homeless is one thing, but seeing the situation (as you have so brilliantly laid it out here) around us but trying to code switch enough to articulate it to those who are not nearly as politically homeless (ie Krugman, ie almost everyone I now) is a really tough thing to do. And could not be more urgent.
"Meanwhile, the ongoing attack of Right Wing media has changed the cultural narrative around the middle class and establishment progressives. They are no longer seen as important to the U.S., but as out-of-touch, privileged, and insufficiently patriotic and religious. They are made increasingly politically homeless: still too wealthy to qualify as "working class," too independent to be controlled by elite narratives, too scattered to form effective solidarity. The lower echelon of the middle class (under $150,000 income) will see their taxes go up as the upper class benefits from a tax cut built on dismantling social services for the poor and elderly."
I took a look at the Krugman piece and the thread of questions you're on there. It's a very interesting conundrum between your two different arguments. I agree with you overall, though I wish I didn't. It's kinda funny because before your article today, I was thinking how I liked Krugman's pieces lately. But I do agree he's overlooking the really nasty shit. I think he must know a lot about Economics. But you're on to more than that. On the one hand though, there was news that Elon would be let go soon. So, perhaps bad press is effective. A big question for me is whether Trump is primarily interested in getting Attention, any kind of attention. Obviously to me he is the worst. If it's attention more than a whole new world order that he wants, maybe that line of reasoning could favor Krugman's argument. It's clear the bad actors like Theil and project25 have methods and malice. Perhaps Trump is both methodless and methodical, so long as his need for attention whims are satisfied. So unpredictable. Certainly he doesn't mind all of us thinking about him all the time. The dilemma will be ongoing and the call for resistance most crucial. Your leadership is needed.
Also, Trump is obsessed w dominance, impunity, popularity, duh, driven by stupidity, cruelty, greed and revenge...of course
I think it is beneficial to look, as Daniel has done, beyond the personality of the Dear Leader. Part of the failure of the American liberal democracy has been too much emphasis on personalities. MAGA is a movement. They have a network of people with various personalities, and they are organized toward burning down the structures of government, economy, and culture that they feel stand in the way of their christo-fascist utopia.
The main role that Donald plays in this is to be a lightning rod for our disdain.
Very good Daniel. Watching from across the pond it is hard to see any rhyme not reason for his resentment day speech on tariffs. Maybe you are crafting one. I guess my question is, does it help even Tiel and Trump and Musk to have every country hate America and set too against it because they will until Trump tries to attack them militarily
Those guys don't care about the USA. That's just a front. They are enriching themselves personally, which is all they will ever care about. They can live anywhere once the job is completed.