Wonderful, broad based summary of what's going on with crypto. Thanks,Daniel. I agree wholeheartedly, especially your inclusion of "the distinctions between autocracies and open societies remain real ones." This is the key to whether in 5-10 years we can even read what you have to say(!)--the rabble rouser you are :) Furthermore as another commenter implied, the ability to start using NFT's or similar to buy and sell real "stuff," especially services is where blockchain goes from fantasy speculation to real reality :) --- and, potentially, as you point out a medium for ecologically and socially regenerative activity.
Finally, you say: "Since political and economic systems aren’t really separate, it is highly likely this will impact all of our legacy institutions, from banks to companies to national governments, in ways we will find difficult to fully anticipate as of yet." I find this terribly exciting. As with the rest of what is going on, we humans, whether we know it or not, are always on the knife edge of life, death, and change. Through the tremendous flux and uncertainty of crypto, we have yet another opportunity for life-affirming evolution.
Susan and Larry, here, from breathe books in Baltimore. Enjoyed your piece on crypto, today.
An idea for potential exploration is facilitation by crypto of new types of sharing economies. In most of the examples, below, the “tokenomics” are based on sharing of things that have real-world value:
- Theta token with over 130,000 people sharing bandwidth and underused home computer processing power receiving micropayments in return. This helps to avoid construction of new centralized cloud data centers and makes more efficient use of already manufactured computer equipment which most people leave powered up ‘round the clock but idle most hours.
- PlanetWatch token rewarding people for maintaining a distributed network of air quality monitoring devices that, through decentralization, far exceed the capacity of any government institution to provide real-time high resolution air quality data
- Helium network with over 360,000 people relaying data through home-based LoFi transmitters (and, potentially worrying, adding 5G). They are sharing both their unique geographical locations as well as bandwidth. Some of the highest paid participants live in rural areas where traditional data coverage is weak and average incomes are lower.
- Dent token creating the possibility for people to be paid for unused cellular phone minutes
- PowerLedger investing initial funds into renewable energy projects and cycling revenue from energy generation to build more projects as well as reward token holders
- AxieInfinity paying people for their time invested in a globally popular video game. Apparently, in the Philippines, many have earned living wages to participate in building multiplayer video game environments. Alas, this has a dark, “Black Mirror” potential to enlist thousands of people in the developing world into a feudal-type arrangement with rich game players.
There are probably many more examples now and in the future where crypto’s ability to facilitate micropayments and swiftly build large decentralized networks will create new sharing economies. Whether these are equitable or not, will depend on their initial architecture and user governance. Many will depend on voluntary assembly of people through their self-interest in ways that most companies and governments would find challenging to organize through their existing centralized structures.
Hi Daniel, you should look into the efficiency of the blockchain and crypto currencies for creating and governing decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO's). It seems like something you might be interested in, as I know you've attempted to organize so many different communities over the years towards collective action. I believe there is great potential for blockchain technology, crypto currencies, decentralized finance etc. to be used for good, and to create opportunity and benefit for many people who might otherwise find it very difficult to get out from under the oppressive weight of existing legacy systems, or the lack thereof for that matter. Crypto for instance, can help historically unbanked populations living in extremely poor or rural regions and lacking financial infrastructure, actually be able to send and receive funds. Like any other technology, the consciousness wielding it, in it's many iterations will inform it's expressions, but the decentralized, trustless nature of what crypto and blockchain can offer has very expansive positive potential when considered creatively and with altruistic intent aimed at ensuring common good at the fulcrum of the vision. Such ideals would be considered Utopian regardless of what systems we'd wish them applied to, but crypto and blockchain seem to me to be very fertile ground for new, more egalitarian and dynamic decentralized systems, to actually take root, and have a chance to flourish.
Daniel, this is a fascinating piece. While reading through the second time, I've been Googling people and terms you mention in here. Increasingly I've been disturbed by the marriage of trends birthed in the far-right with trends I've supported for decades (shamanism, psychedelic spiritualism, worker ownership, self-management, radical politics) and now regenerative thinking (thanks to reading you in 2017!!), sacred economics, gifting economy, and Black Rock City culture.
Can I be in the same room as Peter Thiel when he writes a gigantic check to Trump in 2023? What movement am I a part of????
I look forward to your curation and analysis unfold!
I see the tension locally in my new home in Reno. The anti-government movement of 2021 has very, very strong roots in the Traditional West among my neighbors. Some are Burners and some support joining Bundy's call to kill BLM feds. Bundy's party got 10% of the vote in Gerlach's NV Assembly district of 20,000!!!!
There is something like the birthing pangs of anarcho-capitalism here, but it remains a mystery to me how to unbundle the Old West, Burning Man, our Tesla Gigafactory, voting precincts with 70% Trump voters, and the torrent of progressive Democratic Californians moving in.
Here's an interesting paper I just found prompted by your piece this morning and my thinking since moving to the Reno area:
Incredibly provocative piece. I've been a student of and working in the blockchain and crypto space for over a year now, I host a podcast on the subject and my thoughts on the above is you're capturing insights and introducing valuable considerations that are not generally a part of the dialogue, while also a step behind or sideways on certain aspects of your thesis. I personally find incredible promise in the technology and the markets, but am equally troubled by the far right (and often uninformed) undertones of much of the existing discourse. I would counter your Hillary Clinton reference -- despite having voted for her I can also acknowledge that she is so incumbent to the establishments that face the most disruption that she cannot serve as an objective voice or reliable narrator here. The disconnects around blockchain and crypto are not going to be solved by the political elite, or the banks, or frankly anyone who stands to be adversely demoted from an existing position of power and influence made possible by old systems that failed the masses. But there is an incredible risk in the more moderate or even progressive bodies ignoring or misunderstanding what crypto is about. Their dismissals are driving the momentum and monetary influence of the crypto community further into the hands of the far right who will co-opt it for personal political advancement. What should be apolitical or post-political will instead be a body of influence who supports the party that feigns interest in passing legislation that will not adversely affect the financial interests of the participants. To your point, the lack of legitimate media coverage is another deficit creating a vortex of misrepresentation that could be easily solved for. Even the NYTimes has taken a rather hardline, uninformed, dated position against cryptocurrency. Add to this, the historic narratives pushed by the financial and political institutions about energy concerns and criminal trafficking have not been thoroughly dispelled or put into perspective from a credible media outlet; this would be the easiest investigative long form piece of all time - not to mention powerful - but no newspaper of record wants to bite it. I believe what we are most suffering in the dialogue at this crossroads is the pace at which blockchain and crypto are moving in contrast with the lack of information, access and understanding available to the general public. The movement advances while the masses fall behind or fomo into trades as exit liquidity due to their naivete; it doesn't need to be this way. I look forward to your further pieces on this and would invite a conversation with you on the subject.
Quoting Hillary Clinton "that crypto threatens to undermine the legitimacy of national governments" is pretty rich - they are doing a fine job without it.
Reading this I was reminded of Charles Eisenstein's thesis that money is a great medium of exchange but a poor store of value. A crypto with some form of negative interest could promote the circulation of value without leading to a Gini Coefficient like Bitcoin
Hi Daniel & Kenji. Firstly, I enjoyed reading the piece. Secondly, I learned from both your arguments in the comments. My two cents? I invested 7-8 years ago. Why? For a few reasons:
1. My belief that Blockchain, Crypto, NFT could drive decentralization and power to the people.
2. My belief that our financial systems, are very outdated and need severe updates.
3. I am an early-stage investor in many movements, and the dividend I use to fund social startups.
4. "Netflix is a hype, YouTube a bunch of cat videos." What the Mad Men in media have stated arrogantly before they got disrupted. Like the car industry laughed about Tesla for over a decade. How linear minds have bashed basically anything that is new. Yes, I admit. I like disruption.
On 1? I've seen the FED, SEC, Central Banks, and governments in the Western world. They are clearly putting Blockchain, crypto, and NFT on a leash. Not as bad as China (yet). There, the crypto community moved in an exodus to Singapore. For obvious reasons. Jack Ma's Ant IPO was blocked by the Party. Fintech is on a tight leash. Why oh why? Decentralization and power to the people are opposite totalitarian technocracies aka regimes. Think surveillance and social credit systems. Bad shit in my opinion.
On 2 and 4? I do understand volatility and bouncing rates when Elon tweets :-) I also get the need for taxes. I also get crypto crazy and scamming, and that younger people might need some kind of protection. \
And I do get that powerful old boys networks, do not like transparency and smart contracting. For the simple reason, it's not disrupting but demolishing old business models, hidden mark-ups, and "protected" industries. But our financial system was built for the 20th century. We need a system that can facilitate the 21st industry. In my opinion, we are running on iOs3.01 or Windows 3.01 Upgrades are needed.
3. Needs no explanation, I hope :-) Almost everything or every exponential technology under the hood of Industry4.0, could fly. It's in the name: exponential. They gave us clues ;-)
Having summarized this? Artists and athletes - with NFT - could move away from walled gardens, big tech censorships, and fans on lease. The big tech syndicate needs to be humble again and artists should get back into owning their fan relationships, If they use it smartly, they can also mobilize billions of fans into NFT to dom good and social entrepreneurship. I like that.
I've also been shocked by the Zuckerberg Facebook hearings by Congress. Wow, talking about outdated and old school?
The thing I emphasize in most of my talks? Is about the impact of tech on business, economy, and humanity. It's about technology in the right hands. Because tech can empower but also control society. We lack a global set of morals, values, and ethics. So a global challenge.
In all my talks I explain that my predictions could be completely off. Why?
Because regulators, lawmakers, and governments, could also VETO autonomous cars. Or any other future technology or movement. They have the power to pull the kill switch. Whether we like it, or not.
The future is about being imaginative., not about being right. But I sincerely hope, we will use tech to do good, we will see fair laws, and that we will see a lot of human-inspired social innovation.
It might make me a dreamer or a pretty naive guy. I will accept that label. So, I'm sincerely sorry for throwing politics in again.
The last 20 years, made me realize two important things: A. How long the Mad Men generation can be in denial or delusional when it comes to "new". Very, very long.
The last 20 months, made me realize how fast laws can move suddenly. Very, very fast.
Great ideas here Daniel... but I would really throw politics out when discussing crypto... this immediately gives away that the lens you are looking through is an old one. Especially now that the entire left-right dynamic is changing more than it has in decades. Furthermore the announcement of El Salvador making bitcoin legal tender, and the building of Bitcoin city, shows adoption is starting to happen on a larger scale, and it is only bound to continue to grow. This is an interesting discussion on Bitcoin, and although I agree with you the preachers of bitcoin are loudest now, and that there are always unintended consequences to anything new, the current system is simply too destructive, dehumanizing, and artificial. Personally, I think bitcoin is an example of Bucky Fuller's ethos: 'don't fight the system, create a new one that functions better'. Fascinating discussion about bitcoin and its relation to Fiat, Biosphere, Consciousness. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXvQcuIb5rU
And I look forward to reading this forthcoming book by Aleks Svetski "Homobitcoinicus"
"Bitcoin will actually transform our DNA over generations in a way such that we behave more majestically in a way that we actually start to bake morality into humanity" "
thanks for this daniel... Would be a great follow up here to focus on DAOs like Olympus, Hector, Time Wonderland - Decentralized Autonomous Organizations and the insane APY people are getting for staking their cryptos in their treasuries... the intention is quite noble if you research from what i can gather...
Daniel, very good. I agree with everything except the facts on the ground. Bitcoin is creating it's own reality. Most of the world has not yet joined the speculative frenzy. But they will...
Thoughtful reflections as always Daniel. Thank you. I’ve often described the crypto story as the Digital Animal Farm in reference to George Orwell’s classic. It’s a common scene - those crying revolution the loudest capture value and turn it into ambitions to buy Lambos and generally display ‘crypto bro’ behaviour. However, the underlying trends of decentralisation will transform our world and ultimately lead to a new world collective. We just must avoid trappings of the new world order in the journey.
“early adaptors” haha, nice "typo".. but no seriously, this is good. people who've worked in mutual credit and other community currencies have a LOT of feelings about the crypto boom
Wonderful, broad based summary of what's going on with crypto. Thanks,Daniel. I agree wholeheartedly, especially your inclusion of "the distinctions between autocracies and open societies remain real ones." This is the key to whether in 5-10 years we can even read what you have to say(!)--the rabble rouser you are :) Furthermore as another commenter implied, the ability to start using NFT's or similar to buy and sell real "stuff," especially services is where blockchain goes from fantasy speculation to real reality :) --- and, potentially, as you point out a medium for ecologically and socially regenerative activity.
Finally, you say: "Since political and economic systems aren’t really separate, it is highly likely this will impact all of our legacy institutions, from banks to companies to national governments, in ways we will find difficult to fully anticipate as of yet." I find this terribly exciting. As with the rest of what is going on, we humans, whether we know it or not, are always on the knife edge of life, death, and change. Through the tremendous flux and uncertainty of crypto, we have yet another opportunity for life-affirming evolution.
Hello Daniel,
Susan and Larry, here, from breathe books in Baltimore. Enjoyed your piece on crypto, today.
An idea for potential exploration is facilitation by crypto of new types of sharing economies. In most of the examples, below, the “tokenomics” are based on sharing of things that have real-world value:
- Theta token with over 130,000 people sharing bandwidth and underused home computer processing power receiving micropayments in return. This helps to avoid construction of new centralized cloud data centers and makes more efficient use of already manufactured computer equipment which most people leave powered up ‘round the clock but idle most hours.
- PlanetWatch token rewarding people for maintaining a distributed network of air quality monitoring devices that, through decentralization, far exceed the capacity of any government institution to provide real-time high resolution air quality data
- Helium network with over 360,000 people relaying data through home-based LoFi transmitters (and, potentially worrying, adding 5G). They are sharing both their unique geographical locations as well as bandwidth. Some of the highest paid participants live in rural areas where traditional data coverage is weak and average incomes are lower.
- Dent token creating the possibility for people to be paid for unused cellular phone minutes
- PowerLedger investing initial funds into renewable energy projects and cycling revenue from energy generation to build more projects as well as reward token holders
- AxieInfinity paying people for their time invested in a globally popular video game. Apparently, in the Philippines, many have earned living wages to participate in building multiplayer video game environments. Alas, this has a dark, “Black Mirror” potential to enlist thousands of people in the developing world into a feudal-type arrangement with rich game players.
There are probably many more examples now and in the future where crypto’s ability to facilitate micropayments and swiftly build large decentralized networks will create new sharing economies. Whether these are equitable or not, will depend on their initial architecture and user governance. Many will depend on voluntary assembly of people through their self-interest in ways that most companies and governments would find challenging to organize through their existing centralized structures.
Hi Daniel, you should look into the efficiency of the blockchain and crypto currencies for creating and governing decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO's). It seems like something you might be interested in, as I know you've attempted to organize so many different communities over the years towards collective action. I believe there is great potential for blockchain technology, crypto currencies, decentralized finance etc. to be used for good, and to create opportunity and benefit for many people who might otherwise find it very difficult to get out from under the oppressive weight of existing legacy systems, or the lack thereof for that matter. Crypto for instance, can help historically unbanked populations living in extremely poor or rural regions and lacking financial infrastructure, actually be able to send and receive funds. Like any other technology, the consciousness wielding it, in it's many iterations will inform it's expressions, but the decentralized, trustless nature of what crypto and blockchain can offer has very expansive positive potential when considered creatively and with altruistic intent aimed at ensuring common good at the fulcrum of the vision. Such ideals would be considered Utopian regardless of what systems we'd wish them applied to, but crypto and blockchain seem to me to be very fertile ground for new, more egalitarian and dynamic decentralized systems, to actually take root, and have a chance to flourish.
Daniel, this is a fascinating piece. While reading through the second time, I've been Googling people and terms you mention in here. Increasingly I've been disturbed by the marriage of trends birthed in the far-right with trends I've supported for decades (shamanism, psychedelic spiritualism, worker ownership, self-management, radical politics) and now regenerative thinking (thanks to reading you in 2017!!), sacred economics, gifting economy, and Black Rock City culture.
Can I be in the same room as Peter Thiel when he writes a gigantic check to Trump in 2023? What movement am I a part of????
I look forward to your curation and analysis unfold!
I see the tension locally in my new home in Reno. The anti-government movement of 2021 has very, very strong roots in the Traditional West among my neighbors. Some are Burners and some support joining Bundy's call to kill BLM feds. Bundy's party got 10% of the vote in Gerlach's NV Assembly district of 20,000!!!!
There is something like the birthing pangs of anarcho-capitalism here, but it remains a mystery to me how to unbundle the Old West, Burning Man, our Tesla Gigafactory, voting precincts with 70% Trump voters, and the torrent of progressive Democratic Californians moving in.
Here's an interesting paper I just found prompted by your piece this morning and my thinking since moving to the Reno area:
https://invisiblemolotov.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/wild-west3.pdf
Incredibly provocative piece. I've been a student of and working in the blockchain and crypto space for over a year now, I host a podcast on the subject and my thoughts on the above is you're capturing insights and introducing valuable considerations that are not generally a part of the dialogue, while also a step behind or sideways on certain aspects of your thesis. I personally find incredible promise in the technology and the markets, but am equally troubled by the far right (and often uninformed) undertones of much of the existing discourse. I would counter your Hillary Clinton reference -- despite having voted for her I can also acknowledge that she is so incumbent to the establishments that face the most disruption that she cannot serve as an objective voice or reliable narrator here. The disconnects around blockchain and crypto are not going to be solved by the political elite, or the banks, or frankly anyone who stands to be adversely demoted from an existing position of power and influence made possible by old systems that failed the masses. But there is an incredible risk in the more moderate or even progressive bodies ignoring or misunderstanding what crypto is about. Their dismissals are driving the momentum and monetary influence of the crypto community further into the hands of the far right who will co-opt it for personal political advancement. What should be apolitical or post-political will instead be a body of influence who supports the party that feigns interest in passing legislation that will not adversely affect the financial interests of the participants. To your point, the lack of legitimate media coverage is another deficit creating a vortex of misrepresentation that could be easily solved for. Even the NYTimes has taken a rather hardline, uninformed, dated position against cryptocurrency. Add to this, the historic narratives pushed by the financial and political institutions about energy concerns and criminal trafficking have not been thoroughly dispelled or put into perspective from a credible media outlet; this would be the easiest investigative long form piece of all time - not to mention powerful - but no newspaper of record wants to bite it. I believe what we are most suffering in the dialogue at this crossroads is the pace at which blockchain and crypto are moving in contrast with the lack of information, access and understanding available to the general public. The movement advances while the masses fall behind or fomo into trades as exit liquidity due to their naivete; it doesn't need to be this way. I look forward to your further pieces on this and would invite a conversation with you on the subject.
Quoting Hillary Clinton "that crypto threatens to undermine the legitimacy of national governments" is pretty rich - they are doing a fine job without it.
Reading this I was reminded of Charles Eisenstein's thesis that money is a great medium of exchange but a poor store of value. A crypto with some form of negative interest could promote the circulation of value without leading to a Gini Coefficient like Bitcoin
Hi Daniel & Kenji. Firstly, I enjoyed reading the piece. Secondly, I learned from both your arguments in the comments. My two cents? I invested 7-8 years ago. Why? For a few reasons:
1. My belief that Blockchain, Crypto, NFT could drive decentralization and power to the people.
2. My belief that our financial systems, are very outdated and need severe updates.
3. I am an early-stage investor in many movements, and the dividend I use to fund social startups.
4. "Netflix is a hype, YouTube a bunch of cat videos." What the Mad Men in media have stated arrogantly before they got disrupted. Like the car industry laughed about Tesla for over a decade. How linear minds have bashed basically anything that is new. Yes, I admit. I like disruption.
On 1? I've seen the FED, SEC, Central Banks, and governments in the Western world. They are clearly putting Blockchain, crypto, and NFT on a leash. Not as bad as China (yet). There, the crypto community moved in an exodus to Singapore. For obvious reasons. Jack Ma's Ant IPO was blocked by the Party. Fintech is on a tight leash. Why oh why? Decentralization and power to the people are opposite totalitarian technocracies aka regimes. Think surveillance and social credit systems. Bad shit in my opinion.
On 2 and 4? I do understand volatility and bouncing rates when Elon tweets :-) I also get the need for taxes. I also get crypto crazy and scamming, and that younger people might need some kind of protection. \
And I do get that powerful old boys networks, do not like transparency and smart contracting. For the simple reason, it's not disrupting but demolishing old business models, hidden mark-ups, and "protected" industries. But our financial system was built for the 20th century. We need a system that can facilitate the 21st industry. In my opinion, we are running on iOs3.01 or Windows 3.01 Upgrades are needed.
3. Needs no explanation, I hope :-) Almost everything or every exponential technology under the hood of Industry4.0, could fly. It's in the name: exponential. They gave us clues ;-)
Having summarized this? Artists and athletes - with NFT - could move away from walled gardens, big tech censorships, and fans on lease. The big tech syndicate needs to be humble again and artists should get back into owning their fan relationships, If they use it smartly, they can also mobilize billions of fans into NFT to dom good and social entrepreneurship. I like that.
I've also been shocked by the Zuckerberg Facebook hearings by Congress. Wow, talking about outdated and old school?
The thing I emphasize in most of my talks? Is about the impact of tech on business, economy, and humanity. It's about technology in the right hands. Because tech can empower but also control society. We lack a global set of morals, values, and ethics. So a global challenge.
In all my talks I explain that my predictions could be completely off. Why?
Because regulators, lawmakers, and governments, could also VETO autonomous cars. Or any other future technology or movement. They have the power to pull the kill switch. Whether we like it, or not.
The future is about being imaginative., not about being right. But I sincerely hope, we will use tech to do good, we will see fair laws, and that we will see a lot of human-inspired social innovation.
It might make me a dreamer or a pretty naive guy. I will accept that label. So, I'm sincerely sorry for throwing politics in again.
The last 20 years, made me realize two important things: A. How long the Mad Men generation can be in denial or delusional when it comes to "new". Very, very long.
The last 20 months, made me realize how fast laws can move suddenly. Very, very fast.
So you might be both right ;-)
Cheers
Igor
Great ideas here Daniel... but I would really throw politics out when discussing crypto... this immediately gives away that the lens you are looking through is an old one. Especially now that the entire left-right dynamic is changing more than it has in decades. Furthermore the announcement of El Salvador making bitcoin legal tender, and the building of Bitcoin city, shows adoption is starting to happen on a larger scale, and it is only bound to continue to grow. This is an interesting discussion on Bitcoin, and although I agree with you the preachers of bitcoin are loudest now, and that there are always unintended consequences to anything new, the current system is simply too destructive, dehumanizing, and artificial. Personally, I think bitcoin is an example of Bucky Fuller's ethos: 'don't fight the system, create a new one that functions better'. Fascinating discussion about bitcoin and its relation to Fiat, Biosphere, Consciousness. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXvQcuIb5rU
And I look forward to reading this forthcoming book by Aleks Svetski "Homobitcoinicus"
"Bitcoin will actually transform our DNA over generations in a way such that we behave more majestically in a way that we actually start to bake morality into humanity" "
https://youtu.be/NSvarWDZCGk?t=1331
"Without [money] you quickly starve." Um. Maybe *you* do. Others who know how to survive, forage, hunt, build, mend, repurpose, barter, trade, gift & receive, share, grow food, find and store fresh water, build community, ... might not.
Some related thoughts: How to Combat Creeping Centralization and Create a More Open #ForkandMergeEconomy https://unitedstatesofmind.blog/2018/06/22/dont-let-the-blockchain-get-pwned/
thanks for this daniel... Would be a great follow up here to focus on DAOs like Olympus, Hector, Time Wonderland - Decentralized Autonomous Organizations and the insane APY people are getting for staking their cryptos in their treasuries... the intention is quite noble if you research from what i can gather...
Daniel, very good. I agree with everything except the facts on the ground. Bitcoin is creating it's own reality. Most of the world has not yet joined the speculative frenzy. But they will...
The bubble will take a long time to burst.
Hi, regarding social investment check out Elrond’s founder and especially Stramosi NFT. People buying this NFT are helping Romanian tourism.
Thoughtful reflections as always Daniel. Thank you. I’ve often described the crypto story as the Digital Animal Farm in reference to George Orwell’s classic. It’s a common scene - those crying revolution the loudest capture value and turn it into ambitions to buy Lambos and generally display ‘crypto bro’ behaviour. However, the underlying trends of decentralisation will transform our world and ultimately lead to a new world collective. We just must avoid trappings of the new world order in the journey.
“early adaptors” haha, nice "typo".. but no seriously, this is good. people who've worked in mutual credit and other community currencies have a LOT of feelings about the crypto boom
Daniel you are definitely #NGMI